$21,000 is looking tricky as sell orders mount, while buy walls dry up, taking potential support with them.
Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $21,000 on Nov. 4 as bulls attempted to reclaim lost ground.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
$21,000 sell wall proves ugly
While so far a lower high on hourly timeframes compared to the Nov. 1 and 2 spikes, the move served to make up for losses, which came on the back of the Federal Reserve interest rate hike decision.
Potential for a push beyond $21,000 was limited, however, thanks to exchange sellers stacking asks at that level.
“If you want to sell, place your orders slightly lower than $21k,” Onchain Edge, a contributor at analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in part of a tweet alongside data from the Binance order book.
BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Onchain Edge/ Twitter
Material Indicators, which provides the order book data, additionally noted that buy-side orders had been fickle friends in terms of support, coming and going on the order book.
“THIS is why I don’t trust new, heavily weighted, Bitcoin buy walls,” it commented.
BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter
Fellow CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn meanwhile added that market sell-orders were “still dominant” in the current setup.
“Nothing has really changed, other than a lower Bitcoin price,” part of Twitter commentary stated on the day.
Bitcoin net take buy/sell volume chart. Source: Maartunn/ Twitter
Analyst on stocks: “Big guys loading up”
Beyond crypto, one analytics source noted a potential silver lining for risk assets more broadly in the current climate.
The Smart Money Confidence (SMC) sentiment indicator, traditionally used for stocks, is now at “historical highs,” Game of Trades noted.
High SMC scores coincide with outperformance of the S&P 500, and given Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional markets, there could be cause for optimism on the back of its current reading of 0.61.
SMC hit highs of 0.78 in late September, with a bounce thus required in future.
“The big guys are loading up. Smart money confidence is at historically high levels,” an optimistic Game of Trades nonetheless summarized.
Smart money confidence annotated chart. Source: Games of Trades/ Twitter
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