Plenty of uncertainty about the future remains for the price of Bitcoin amid fresh signs that U.S. inflation is slowing.
Bitcoin (BTC) spiked to $17,000 at the Nov. 15 Wall Street open as fresh United States economic data continued to show inflation cooling.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
“Good” PPI boosts risk assets
Volatility had returned an hour before the open as the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) came in below expectations.
Core PPI was unchanged month-on-month, with the PPI overall up 0.2% versus the 0.4% forecast. Year-on-year PPI was 8% versus the 8.3% forecast.
The data, already in stark contrast to last month’s PPI, follows on from October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout last week, this also showing that price increases in the U.S. were slowing.
An ostensibly good sign for crypto along with risk assets, lower numbers theoretically increase the likelihood of an earlier pivot in hawkish economic policy from the Federal Reserve.
“Good CPI & Good PPI,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted.
Others were more suspicious of the results in light of such aggressive quantitative tightening (QT) measures.
“The PPI is the inflation number Fed uses to make decisions,” popular analyst Venturefounder wrote in part of a Twitter analysis.
“Market rallies on the news, inflation may have peaked but I think the most alarming part is after record QT for almost a year the PPI is still at 8%.”U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) chart. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Stocks naturally appreciated the latest economic changes, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up 1.7% and 2.4%, respectively, at the open.
The already precarious U.S. dollar index (DXY), meanwhile, felt the pressure, briefly dropping below 105.5 to its lowest levels since mid-August.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
Bullish divergences meet the “final capitulation” risk
For Bitcoin, optimism was still hard to find in analytical circles.
Nonetheless, for trader and analyst Seth, a fresh bullish divergence on the weekly chart was something to feel confident about.
“Bears took credit for the FTX Blackswan. Not many knew 2nd largest Exchange was going Bankrupt!” accompanying Twitter comments stated.
Bleaker news came from fellow analyst Matthew Hyland, whose previous warning of a bearish chart cross came true.
“The previous two crosses resulted in -46% and -57% moves AFTER the cross was confirmed,” he reiterated about the three-day chart’s moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/Twitter
Il Capo of Crypto, still eyeing a deeper macro low, meanwhile, added that the “final capitulation is likely.”
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